Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label analysis. Show all posts

Friday, June 08, 2007

The four main indexes featured here seemed anxious to get back to their 20-day EMA's; the Nasdaq making it just above (on average to low volume) and the Russell2000 and DJIA (again, on low volume) closing just under. The S&P500 closing under its 20-day EMA, but on some strong volume looked like a good correction rebound.


Freak Fest Friday

Well, we were off to a seemingly rational start to the markets today after the past three day correction. And then, all of a sudden, it's irrational exuberance, and we're off to the races with solid gains across the indices. So, WTF?!? Here's a string of "reasons" why the markets are so optimistic: Trade Gap has narrowed. Even though "The overall deficit remains an unhealthy 5.1 percent of GDP and will likely rise in May as petroleum imports rebound and imports from China continue to surge." Bond yields retreated a correction that seemed expected to occur after yesterday's run up to 5.25%. Oil dropped more than $2 on "demand concerns," "due to higher interest rates." (gimme a break). Should make for an interesting week come Monday.

Wednesday, June 06, 2007

I'll take "Buying the Dip" for $1000 Alex

a: It's what a speculator might do after the market comes down in price.

Waiting to see how big of a correction (part deux) we have. At the moment, all the indexes seem like they're comfortable coming back into their 20-day EMA range. If that's as far as they go things will have shaped up to be quite orderly in terms of correction mode and the scene may be set for some buying-on-the-dip.

Thursday, May 31, 2007

Higher and Higher

Things certainly are picking up (and up, and up). Above average volume across the boards today, with the major indexes posting narrow ranging candles in their upper price ranges. The S&P500 had a momentus closing yesterday at an all-time (closing) high, while today's trading range stayed above the previous closing high pivot point.
So it's agreed; U.S. growth was pathetic for the first quarter, rising at only a 0.6% annualized pace, the slowest growth in 4 years. "Housing continued to collapse, business investment was anemic, and the trade gap widened. Businesses, finding they'd stocked too many goods, pruned their inventories back sharply. Consumers, on the other hand, spent freely."
However...the numbers speak for themselves...for the month of May:
DJIA +4.3%
S&P500 +3.3%
Nasdaq +3.1%
Not too shabby for a month whose mantra is Sell in May and Go Away.

Friday, May 25, 2007

Healthy Holiday Close

Russell2000Nasdaq Comp.100
S&P500
DJIA

All the indices closed up today on mostly lower volume (particularly the DJIA). The S&p500 was up a mere 0.55% on strong volume. A mostly down week, with lots of M/A news, weeker than expected existing home sales, and an increased likelihood of interest rates remaining where they are. The indices are all above some solid Moving Averages and it seems things were set up for a stress-free 3-day weekend.

Thursday, May 24, 2007

Sell-Off Thursday





A later day sell-off brought all the indices into the moving averages they were extended from. Most momentus being the Nasdaq which came down to the 2513 support level established last month and closing below its 20-day MA. The Russell2000 deflated from its all-time highs and dropped back into the channel it was trading in over the previous 6 weeks and through its 20-day MA. The S&P500 came down to its 20-day MA (above average volume) after being over-extended and trying to reach into all-time high territory. Likewise the DJIA coming back into 10-day MA range with above average volume. Correction mode;

Monday, May 21, 2007

Noteworthy


"While the S&P 500 is flirting with the possibility of closing at a new all-time high, the Nasdaq is still about 50% below its record close of 5048 (March 10, 2000). Back then, the Tech sector accounted for about 30% of the total weighting on the S&P 500. Today, it is very influential, ranking second behind Financials, but it now accounts for just 15% of the broader market's weighting."