Monday, June 28, 2010


TLT closed on $100 today (highest close since April 2009).A chart of TLT vs. SPY (bottom chart).The last time this correlation crossed was July 15, 2009 (crazy if it crosses the other way a year to the day). A few days after this cross we got higher highs on the S&P

The SPY closed right on its Lower Median LineWednesday is the last day of the month, how will that effect the markets until then?

Sunday, March 21, 2010

candle patterns

Ran across some text book candle patterns, take a look:
A Bullish Piercing Line pattern in TSL:
OK, this isn't exactly a Bearish Meeting Lines pattern in BA, but comes within a few cents:
Nice example of Support-turned-Resistance looking at the weekly chart:A Bearish Hanging Man in GS:Not very glamorous, but a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the XLI:Bearish Dark Cloud Cover IYT:

Saturday, February 06, 2010

measured moves down

Here's a look at the indexes (in ETF form) over the past 14-days on a 60-minute time frame. All displaying great examples of Fibonacci Retracement levels and Extensions.
The SPY, a very nice example of a corrective A-B-C wave pattern (though A-B-C on the chart weren't meant as Elliot Wave labels). Direct overhead resistance with the 38.2% retracement (measured off of the 2/3 swing high to 2/5 swing low) which is also the previous support from 1/29 (Support-turned-Resistance?).Q's showing the 1-2-3 momentum push. Very upward to sideways-sloping consolidation cycles, compared to the others, I wonder what that says about the participants trading it? (btw, the labels 1-2-3-4-5 are not meant to be Elliot Wave counts). Confluence of Resistance at the $43.30 area where 61.8% and -27.2% meet up.DIA, yet to really "bounce"!? First move would bring it at least to a 38.2% retracement measured off of the 2/3 swing high to 2/5 swing low.and IWM, looks like just a dumping of shares (ditto DIA) these past 3 days. Watching to see how well it handles overhead resistance at 38.2%, and previous support (turned resistance?) at the 50% retracement

Saturday, August 16, 2008


It's moving day. The blog is called ToddsTrade, so now that's what the URL is going to be...
So come on by and help me start a clean slate. Hope to hear from you all and see you there; thanks!

Friday, August 15, 2008


wrote the day off and decided to make some beer instead. All done and fermenting as I write. mmmmm vanilla porter.

Thursday, August 14, 2008


Back to QLD today, where most of the money was to be made in the early morning. Quick flags printed the trend up where consolidation formed a triangle (15-minute chart) with support at the first resistance pivot line. A break of the triangle took price up to the second pivot resistance line where momentum died out and price chopped around but didn't give up much ground overall. As you can see oil (as represented by the inset USO chart) is a big determinant to where the indices are going to go.Looking at the Nasdaq Composite Index price is about 1/2 way to the measured move out of the inverted roof, with about 79 points left. Who knows whether it will complete the move up to that resistance level, but it looks pretty strong here.

Wednesday, August 13, 2008


...was my repeating theme today. I gave up on QLD today and focused on the Diamonds Trust ETF DIA. I missed/hesitated on the inverse "Holy Grail" set-ups to the down side. The DIA bottomed/found support (the 200-MA on the 30-minute chart and trend line support on the daily), while also set up an Inverse Head & Shoulders on the chart I was watching (a share bar chart that correlates to a 5-minute chart). I was also watching USO/Oil to give clues to the potential break-out of the Inverse H & S. As USO seemed to top out DIA began to move. Initial target was somewhere between 38.2% & 50% Fib. retracement (from yesterday's close to today's low) depending on the momentum behind it. Price hesitated at 38.2% and got a pop to the 50% level (where it consolidated).
I then continued to watch as DIA formed a cup w. handle pattern on the 15-min. chart. For some reason I couldn't commit to pulling the trigger to buy on the break of the rim. Hesitation payed off in this case, as a break of the rim failed at the open range high, as well as Oil holding onto it's highs of the day.