Saturday, August 16, 2008
Friday, August 15, 2008
Thursday, August 14, 2008
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
I then continued to watch as DIA formed a cup w. handle pattern on the 15-min. chart. For some reason I couldn't commit to pulling the trigger to buy on the break of the rim. Hesitation payed off in this case, as a break of the rim failed at the open range high, as well as Oil holding onto it's highs of the day.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
On the shorter time frame chart (the larger chart) I have an ellipse around an indicator that fires to alert you when Bollinger Bands are squeezing inside of a Keltner Channel. It's not an indicator to trigger you into/out of a trade, but it lends you a condition to increase probability.
Monday, August 11, 2008
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Friday, August 08, 2008
Volume on the break of resistance for the Dow is pretty unconvincing, but a measured move from here puts the upside at around 872 points.
The S&P500 breakout would add about 90 points to the upside. It needs to clear the 50-EMA at this point.The Nasdaq has definitively broken out of this pattern (and above it's 50-EMA) and give us a target of the 2530 area.
The articles I have found so far give the following correlations:
-The European Central Bank announced expectations of slowed Euro growth. OK, that might explain the Euro/U.S$ correlation, but there are multiple currencies within the U.S.$-index.
-A short squeeze? "The euro crashed through "big support levels in a short period of time," said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB. "A lot of participants were caught out and forced to liquidate" long euro positions." Perhaps the Euro-zone is slowing down and starting to mirror the situation the U.S. economy has been in for the past 9 months (a.k.a. recession whispers)?
-"...better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data Thursday and, in particular, the Chinese government's recent imposition of new currency controls were likely among the catalysts for the dollar's broad surge in Asian trading."
"Currency strategists at Commerzbank also downplayed the ECB's role, saying the moves during Asian hours were clearly a reflection of broad "dollar strength," rather than euro weakness...Obviously many market participants are currently re-positioning their currency allocations and [betting] on an end of the prolonged sideways movement."
-"The Chinese measures may be among the triggers they said, leaving investors who had bet on high-yielding currencies or continued gains by China's yuan currency with few alternatives other than the dollar. That backdrop also underpins the Japanese yen, they said, as traders abandon carry trades in which they borrow low-yielding currencies then use the funds to buy assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies."
- Commodity positions are unwinding. "...investors are long commodities, the currencies of countries that benefit from increases in commodity prices, their stocks and their bonds. In addition, many investors are invested in countries benefiting cross-border capital flows tied to increases in commodity prices (Eastern Europe, for example, which, according to the BIS, has been a major recipient of money from the Middle East). The U.S. dollar is a major safe-haven amid this major unwind." This I can see having a pretty broad ripple effect.
-As part of the above explanation, the Australian dollar continues to slide. The longest consecutive decline since 1980. Another commodity correlation.
-Some more articles can be found here. I think my understanding is clearer, but still a little fuzzy.
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
Monday, August 04, 2008
There's MOO, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (main holdings include BG, MOS, MON, POT). Or, you can check out DBA.KOL, Market Vectors Coal ETF (top holdings include WLT, CNX, MEE, ACI).
SLX, Market Vectors Steel ETF (top holdings include X, MTL, RIO, MT)IYT, iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average is in limbo at the moment, but might be good if Oil continues to the downside (top holdings of BNI, CSX, FDX, NSC, JBLU, CAL)
And then there's PBE, PowerShares Biotech ETF (top holdings being ABI, DNA, GILD, WAT)
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
While the Q's took off in the morning and chopped sideways the rest of the day. It had a pop up at the 50-MA.
Monday, July 28, 2008
"...on November 12, 1999. With the CEO of Citigroup looking over his shoulder, Bill Clinton signed into law the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act which repealed the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933.
The Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act permitted commercial and investment banks to consolidate, and almost overnight behemoth financial service companies that supplied everything to everybody were born. Smith-Barney, Salomon Brothers, PaineWebber and many other well-known and respected investment banks were gobbled up by Citibank, JP Morgan etc, and while the lay public didn’t have a clue what was going on, conflict of interests were rampant. Suddenly the banking arm of one of these financial service companies was pressuring the investment arm to raise its ratings on stocks to help lubricate the deal-making process. (As a quick side note, Citigroup played a major role lobbying for an end to Glass-Steagall. Starting in 1998, the finance, insurance and real estate industries together spent more than $200 million to get Glass-Steagall repealed, and not so coincidentally, only a couple days after Clinton signed Gramm-Leach-Bliley into law, recently-departed Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin was hired by Citigroup as a member of its 3-person office of the chairman.)
If you start with today and work backwards with intentions of figuring out when “all this mess started,” you’ll find many parties that played a role in adding fuel to a fire which was spinning out of control, but your journey won’t end until November 12, 1999 when Bill Clinton tore down the walls within the financial community.
I’m not going to go as far to say if Bill Clinton had not repealed Glass-Steagall, we wouldn’t be in the financial situation we’re in, but I can certainly say it would have been much more mild and probably isolated. When second and third parties are involved in a transaction, more due diligence is done, more scrutiny is applied, and less risk is taken."
It's a very interesting read. And to top it all off, the article ends with a great photo of Bill Clinton after signing the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. Looks like a circle-jerk at an occult sacrifice...not that I know what one of those would look like, but I've seen some movies.
Same story with the Q's.Something to keep in mind with these trend days comes from today's post at AfraidtoTrade.com, Corey writes:
"Most trend days begin with two common characteristics:
A low-range day prior (usually a NR7 or a doji pattern)
A (relatively) large opening gap
The last two trend days (the last was the previous Thursday) had slight but not ultra-range contraction, but neither began with a large opening gap. In fact, both were ‘creeping’ trends, which tend to be the most insidious, hidden style of trend days. Lack of an opening gap can lull us into complacency as we fail to recognize the potential for the trend day to unfold. It’s far easier to anticipate a large intrday trend day move if the initial gap occurs (and especially if there’s some sort of major news announcement)."
Friday, July 25, 2008
Thursday, July 24, 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Monday, July 21, 2008
Thursday, July 17, 2008
Not as much bang for your buck as directly playing futures or forex (I really have to open one account or the other), but a viable option. If I come across any other options I'll update this post with them.
The Big Picture - Stick it to 'em
Who Holds all that "Agency Debt?" (a whopping 25% of GDP, or $1-trillion is held by China)
Why can't people take sound advice when it's smacking them in the face? Here's an excerpt from this link; taking note it was written in September of '07:
"...if loans were extended to people who shouldn't have received them, real estate prices would have been bid up higher than they should have been. And it is a propagation mechanism in the sense that, as long as house prices continued to rise, all sins were forgiven. Even a completely fraudulent loan would not go into default when there's sufficient price appreciation, since the perpetrator is better off repaying the loan in order to enjoy the capital gain.The problem is that, as this process gets undone, both effects operate in reverse. A credit crunch means that some people who should get loans don't receive them, depressing real estate prices, and as prices fall, some loans will become delinquent that otherwise might not. If such fundamentals are indeed contributing factors on the way up and the way down, the magnitude of the resulting decline in real estate prices, and their implications for default rates, could be much bigger than the reassuring numbers Mishkin invites us to remember based on the historical variability of these series. What worries me in particular is, if we see this much in the way of delinquencies and short-term credit concerns in the current economic environment, in which GDP has still been growing and house price declines are quite modest, what can we expect with a full-blown recession and, say, a 20% decline in average real estate values?"
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Typically you see Head and Shoulders patterns at the top of bullish trends, but that doesn't mean they can't appear during consolidation of a bearish move. In this particular case in the U.S. Dollar index the short-term trend was up from the period between late April and mid-June before falling through it's trend line, pulling back and forming the right shoulder. Currently the index is struggling to stay above it's neckline, which we should expect it to do being that it's at a major level of support. A measured move from this point below the neckline would put this index at fresh lows in the $69.55 area. Check out patternsite.com for determining patterns and the measurement guidelines. Also, check out etftrends for ways to hedge against a bearish dollar through ETF's and ETN's. Particularly; FXE, ERO, DBV (Ascending Triangle on this one).
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
A classic "cover-your-going-broke-ass" move. What can you expect though? We have to protect those CEO's and institutional holders of LEH, MS, et al., before their holdings are worthless, right? How would you feel if you owned 2.7-million shares as head of MS? Imagine how Barclay's feels while they're stuck holding 48-million shares in Morgan Stanley.
They're scared shitless.
So, instead of allowing the entities responsible for this mess to pay the consequences (and accept the risks they took on) we'll just help them defer accountability, give them carte blanche to the Fed, and hand the costs over to tax payers. Thank goodness we have Henry Paulson as Treasury Secretary; who would know better what to do in an economic situation like this than an ex-head of Goldman Sachs?
- We the people are being assured, our deposits are safe. In other words, don't go making a run on your bank. hmmmm
- Wholesale inflation jumped 1.8% from May to June.
- Don't worry, that stimulus check will kick-start our economy.
- Is Bush the new Costanza? Should we suspect the opposite of what he thinks will happen?
- The Euro is the new Dollar.
- Brazil expanding beyond major cities.
- And I thought watching 30 stocks during the day was tough.
- The next big commodity?
- VW spending $1-billion for plant in Tenn. That's only $627-million after the Euro/Dollar exchange rate, what a deal!
Monday, July 14, 2008
So, that brings the profit margin, after manufacturing costs, to around $99,500,000.00 in 3-days. Not a bad weekend's work.
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Catching up on reading all the blogs out there. It seems there's a lot more reliable information there than going with the news services.
Monday, July 07, 2008
The Wailin Jennys
Thursday, June 26, 2008
Where do we go from here? The path of least resistance tells us...
DJIA - ouch, how low can we go!S&P 500 still got a way to go to truly test those March lows.Same with the Nasdaq...got another 150 points to lose before the March lows are firmly tested.The Russell 2000 as represented by IWM just broke through it's Head and Shoulders top pattern. Broke through the neckline, tested, and may not look back.Now for Gold and Oil. Oil, as represented here by USO, is basing around it's highs. One bad news report could send us to new highs yet again.
Gold, as represented here by the ETF GLD is back up to resistance. Although the near-term trend is down, the momentum divergence is showing a positive slope.
And last but not least, the U.S.Dollar index. It had a run for a few weeks, but looks primed to test the lows it became comfortable with.