Sunday, March 30, 2008


Google looks interesting to me. It is currently way below its 200EMA ($547) and seems to have rounded off after a sharp selling spell. It would certainly be worth keeping an eye on, especially after AAPL just did a rounded-bottom move to the upside. Google looks like it might want to make a try to fill the gap left after February's selling.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Dollar Slide...again

The U.S. Dollar Index closed at the second lowest level ever (the first low close was a mere 6 trading days ago). Even with market commentators calling out a bottom in the Bear market, we still see some serious warning signs flashing. Gold is seeing some accumulation, Oil is over $105 a barrel, and the Dollar is pathetic compared to other currencies.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008


The RailRoad industry is up over 7% YTD. Some seem due for a pull-back, as they have had a strong run this week and/or last. Anyway, here are some of the players:
BNICNICPCSXGBXGWRKSUNSCUNPWABand finally, the DJTransportation index

Monday, March 24, 2008

Apple Jumps out of its Frying Pan

A candlestick pattern known as a Fry Pan Bottom looks to have formed in AAPL. Also similar to a bump-and-run reversal bottom. This pattern is evident in a slow curving pattern with it's lowest point typically near the middle of the move. The confirmation of the breakout move after a Fry Pan Bottom becomes a large bullish candle or a gap-up. This will usually occur near the high point of the beginning of the Fry Pan Bottom formation. Today's price action took the stock above it's 20 & 50-day EMAs and it looks primed to over-take the 200-day EMA. It looks to me like this stock might start to run on us. $160 here we come??


I'm thinking I'll start buying into VMW here as they're starting to expand in India. I actually use VMware on my macBookPro to run windows while on my OSX partition.

merger go-ahead

XM & Sirius were (Finally!) given the go-ahead for a merger. Though the FCC still has to approve the deal.

Friday, March 21, 2008


I was too exhausted to post anything yesterday. I was also bummed to be ousted from the Ragin' FinalFour tournament (sigh). It's been a long (even though it was a shortened) exhaustive week. I've been suffering from a debilitating trade-paralysis lately where I just can't seem to pull the trigger, even after telling myself to cut my share size down if I'm not comfortable. This trading profession can really mess with your head. I think perhaps I need a mentor or someone who has gone through it all and can maybe help me build up my confidence. Or someone I could talk through ideas/strategies with. booohoohoo Yo soy un perdedor!
At any rate, here are a number of set-ups I wish I would have taken yesterday, consider them chart set-ups for posterity.
AAPl - I was even watching/expecting a break of this 2-day channel.CMG - this had a run-away move in the morning, based around in the early afternoon and a squeeze between resistance and the fast moving average on increasing volume took this burrito bomb higher into the last hours of trading.GS - had a lull in volume during its narrow-range corrective phase. Price chopped around resistance, volume picked up, the broad market picked up and this stock carried through.ISRG - another one that I was watching/expecting a break of its base. After it sold off in the morning it steadily worked its way back to the previous day support where volume picked up, moving averages converged, and price carried on up to the previous day's resistance.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

so much for follow-through

The excitement of a potential "bottom" was put in check today. It's kinda laughable when, after one day, the talking heads start stirring up speculation of an all's-good scenario.
The Nasdaq erased all gains from yesterday.
The S&P500 and the DJIA both gave away most of their gains from yesterday leaving us with an inside day. The Russell2000 is hurtin' and after today's session we were left with some dark-cloud cover.

Tomorrow is Triple Witching.

Futures took a beating today under some serious liquidation/profit-taking.


Found this through boingboing....a What If scenario:


Provided are the daily and weekly charts of both Coke and Pepsi. Coke's share price was traveling a rough road throughout the last decade before finding a groove about 2 years ago. Recently it retreated from a pivot low to reclaim the 200EMA.
Pepsi on the other hand had a more orderly price trend over the course of the last decade. The new year took it from it's extreme highs down to the bottom of the regression channel. Recently it too had a rally back to the 200EMA where it seems to have found solid footing.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008


The IPO is on Wednesday. They raised $17.86 Billion in the "biggest-ever initial public offering of shares in U.S. history." Shares are being priced at $44, trading on the NYSE under the symbol V.

bigger, longer, uncut.....

...Marubozu candle that is. The S&P 500 & DJIA opened and closed today at the highs of the session which turned out to form what is called a full Marubozu candle, see also here. The Nasdaq and Russell2000 were almost, but not quite, Marubozu candles and all closed above their 20-day EMA's.


The markets made a psychotic sell-off move after the Fed announcement, only to recover and close at the high tick of the day for all three indices. Plenty of fodder out there to give the bulls reason to initiate some accumulation.
Here's a 2-day cup with handle move I missed today in MA, it didn't even have too much of a reaction to the rate-cut news as most stocks did.


Cramer was wrong!?

No, wait. Cramer was right!? "You got the liquidity"

"I'm not gonna cause a run on a bank, that's stupid." -Jim Cramer

But he'll cause a run on anything else by screaming "sell" on some stupid "lightning round." His view of it is, "If you kept your money at Bear you made out, you got the liquidity." I know I would have been sooo relieved if I was holding a couple hundred shares of BSC over the weekend and it opened on Monday nearly worthless, but hey! I've got the liquidity!! sweet! Bullshit Semantics.


Will we see the day where a U.S. Dollar will be laying on the street and no one bothers to pick it up?
Perhaps it's temporary within the market turmoil lately, but Amsterdam isn't accepting an exchange of U.S. Dollar for Euros due to the rapid deterioration of value.

Monday, March 17, 2008

jim rogers


...minus Garfield. The sad, sad life of John Arbuckle. Oddly (or not), It's kinda funnier without the cat.

volatile day

Huge volume in the morning today that tapered off to lower levels that, I would assume, don't correspond with a "bottom." Summing it up with a big bull rush on the DOW leaving it green for St. Patty's day. Perhaps the market is "pricing in" a full point rate cut for tomorrow.
Today saw a number of these parabolic set-ups:

LEH, not quite parabolicGFIG

St.Patty + Witching

Friday of this week the market is closed due to "Good Friday." As a result Triple Witching is Thursday of this week. So, we should have quite the volatile week.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

wow pt.II

I had no idea the layers behind this news. Crap! So JPM is buying BSC for $2/share!! Two Dollars!!...That makes BSC (the fifth largest investment bank, the investment bank that up until last year bragged of an 85-year profitability streak) at about $236 million.
I'm hearing Gold futures are up 3% so far...that would put it up $30.
messy, messy, messy....And all of a sudden your mind gets racing on what positions to entertain. Just start buying puts?
Go long SKF and GLD?
Try to short IWM, Q's, SPY and DIA on retracements?
Perhaps everything will go parabolic and we can do nothing but buy the capitulation.
I'll likely just sit-back, take everything in, and learn from my observations.


Dollar falls below 96 yen for the first time since 1995

Hang Seng down 4.12%
Nikkei down 3.8%
Shanghai down 3.7%


I just read this link found over at The Fly's (gotta hand it to him, he is prompt with breaking news). I wanted to borrow this link over to my page for a keep-sake reminder. It's an historic event after all, a Fed rate cut on a Sunday evening!? Can't wait to watch the drama unfold tomorrow morning. Between that and financial reporting this week it could be a shorting paradise. Soon you'll find dollar bills on the street and not even bother to pick them up.

Friday, March 14, 2008


There were a number of obvious patterns jumping out on charts today, looking at a few....
There was the bearish pennant of GS:
There was a bullish pennant with SKF:
And there was a bear flag on SPWR:


Starting with the obvious today....BSC got bailed out by big brother today. As a result the stock price lost 47% and traded it's average volume in the first half-hour of the day.

to sum it all up

Today's inflation numbers came in flat for February. So, not to worry, those higher prices at the pump and the grocery store are not cause for inflationary alarm. I felt "The Fly" summed it up nicely:
"During the worst housing crisis in 100 years, we’ve learned, NO ONE is allowed to fail. Everyone is too big. From homebuilders to money centers to low-end brokerage houses to monoline insurers, if you need a little scratch, knock on the Governments door and they’ll help you out. This, as you know, is not capitalism. This is socialism heavy, not light, which is disgraceful."

Thursday, March 13, 2008


The "Carlyle/Drake Rally" pushes Gold above $1000/oz.

U.S. home foreclosure filings jumped 60% in February.

Carlyle Capital near collapse after failing to meet its $400million+ margin call.

U.S. Dollar falls to 12-year low vs. the Japanese Yen.

A penny costs 1.7 cents to make and a nickel costs nearly a dime!

Wednesday, March 12, 2008


From Minyanville:
Can the Fed Go Bankrupt?

"...central banks are still trying to convince markets that the financial system is merely experiencing “liquidity” problems. But if liquidity were the only issue, all the pumping the Fed and other central banks have been doing already should have cleared up this problem.
The problem isn't one of liquidity. It's one of solvency: loans banks made...are worth less now than when they made the loans. Because they made way (100 ways) too many of them, banks in general have no capital left. You can’t make loans if you don’t have capital.
So the Fed has to give the banks capital. This latest scheme is extremely troubling, especially for the already-battered dollar. The Fed is taking on “AAA mortgages” from the banks in exchange for Treasury Bills to give banks the capital. Of course we don’t know the price they are taking on these mortgages at and that is the crux of the matter. Everything is price.
Let’s say the mortgages continue to deteriorate in price (which is highly likely given the nature of our rating system to make them AAA) and then the banks are in no shape to take them back. If the Fed is stuck with declining assets it too will have a capital problem. But if the Fed loses capital it won’t go bankrupt like a regular company: It will just print the money to make up the difference. Literally.
If the Fed loses $50 billion, it can physically print (tell the Treasury to print) the currency to make up this difference. If there currently is $700 billion of physical currency in circulation, printing $50 billion new money would immediately devalue the dollar by 7%.
If the Fed takes on riskier and riskier loans, it becomes more and more negative for the dollar. A collapse in the dollar is a de-facto bankruptcy by the Federal Reserve and the U.S. in general."