Wednesday, July 16, 2008

U.S. Dollar; Effed in the A?

With CPI numbers coming in larger than expected and inflation fears hinging with the Fed., concerns over the U.S. Dollar are prevalent.
Typically you see Head and Shoulders patterns at the top of bullish trends, but that doesn't mean they can't appear during consolidation of a bearish move. In this particular case in the U.S. Dollar index the short-term trend was up from the period between late April and mid-June before falling through it's trend line, pulling back and forming the right shoulder. Currently the index is struggling to stay above it's neckline, which we should expect it to do being that it's at a major level of support. A measured move from this point below the neckline would put this index at fresh lows in the $69.55 area. Check out for determining patterns and the measurement guidelines. Also, check out etftrends for ways to hedge against a bearish dollar through ETF's and ETN's. Particularly; FXE, ERO, DBV (Ascending Triangle on this one).

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