It's moving day. The blog is called ToddsTrade, so now that's what the URL is going to be...http://toddstrade.blogspot.com
So come on by and help me start a clean slate. Hope to hear from you all and see you there; thanks!
Saturday, August 16, 2008
Moving
It's moving day. The blog is called ToddsTrade, so now that's what the URL is going to be...http://toddstrade.blogspot.com
So come on by and help me start a clean slate. Hope to hear from you all and see you there; thanks!
Friday, August 15, 2008
beer
wrote the day off and decided to make some beer instead. All done and fermenting as I write. mmmmm vanilla porter.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
QLD...again
Back to QLD today, where most of the money was to be made in the early morning. Quick flags printed the trend up where consolidation formed a triangle (15-minute chart) with support at the first resistance pivot line. A break of the triangle took price up to the second pivot resistance line where momentum died out and price chopped around but didn't give up much ground overall. As you can see oil (as represented by the inset USO chart) is a big determinant to where the indices are going to go.
Looking at the Nasdaq Composite Index price is about 1/2 way to the measured move out of the inverted roof, with about 79 points left. Who knows whether it will complete the move up to that resistance level, but it looks pretty strong here.
Looking at the Nasdaq Composite Index price is about 1/2 way to the measured move out of the inverted roof, with about 79 points left. Who knows whether it will complete the move up to that resistance level, but it looks pretty strong here.
Wednesday, August 13, 2008
Hesitation...
...was my repeating theme today. I gave up on QLD today and focused on the Diamonds Trust ETF DIA. I missed/hesitated on the inverse "Holy Grail" set-ups to the down side. The DIA bottomed/found support (the 200-MA on the 30-minute chart and trend line support on the daily), while also set up an Inverse Head & Shoulders on the chart I was watching (a share bar chart that correlates to a 5-minute chart). I was also watching USO/Oil to give clues to the potential break-out of the Inverse H & S. As USO seemed to top out DIA began to move. Initial target was somewhere between 38.2% & 50% Fib. retracement (from yesterday's close to today's low) depending on the momentum behind it. Price hesitated at 38.2% and got a pop to the 50% level (where it consolidated).
I then continued to watch as DIA formed a cup w. handle pattern on the 15-min. chart. For some reason I couldn't commit to pulling the trigger to buy on the break of the rim. Hesitation payed off in this case, as a break of the rim failed at the open range high, as well as Oil holding onto it's highs of the day.
I then continued to watch as DIA formed a cup w. handle pattern on the 15-min. chart. For some reason I couldn't commit to pulling the trigger to buy on the break of the rim. Hesitation payed off in this case, as a break of the rim failed at the open range high, as well as Oil holding onto it's highs of the day.
Tuesday, August 12, 2008
Chop
A choppy, messy day. I'm preferring to stick with watching one market lately (that market being the Ultra QQQ ProShares, QLD). It feels to me like a good method to learning to read "the tape." So, here's the one set-up that gave a decent probability to a trade in your direction. On the 15-minute chart (smaller inset chart) a triangle set up over the course of the last two sessions. The faster chart gives a better perspective. You can play it aggressively and short in anticipation of the break-down (somewhere in the long red candle), or more conservatively as price breaks the trend line (same long red candle) or makes a throw-back to the trend line (green high-wave candle).
On the shorter time frame chart (the larger chart) I have an ellipse around an indicator that fires to alert you when Bollinger Bands are squeezing inside of a Keltner Channel. It's not an indicator to trigger you into/out of a trade, but it lends you a condition to increase probability.
On the shorter time frame chart (the larger chart) I have an ellipse around an indicator that fires to alert you when Bollinger Bands are squeezing inside of a Keltner Channel. It's not an indicator to trigger you into/out of a trade, but it lends you a condition to increase probability.
Monday, August 11, 2008
QLD trend day
A beautiful trend in QLD right up until about 2p.m. when the longs seemed to cover at the R2 Pivot Point resistance area.
Sunday, August 10, 2008
Friday, August 08, 2008
QLD trend day
A truly awesome trend day today, Nasdaq up 2.5%. The following is a chart of QLD, and what an orderly chart it is. A lesson in tape reading...
Inverted Roof
It looks (to me) like an inverted roof has taken shape across all of the major indexes and we're testing a break out above resistance, which could bring us a measured move to the upside, if we could get past the major 50-period Moving Average resistance.
Volume on the break of resistance for the Dow is pretty unconvincing, but a measured move from here puts the upside at around 872 points.
The S&P500 breakout would add about 90 points to the upside. It needs to clear the 50-EMA at this point.
The Nasdaq has definitively broken out of this pattern (and above it's 50-EMA) and give us a target of the 2530 area.
Volume on the break of resistance for the Dow is pretty unconvincing, but a measured move from here puts the upside at around 872 points.
The S&P500 breakout would add about 90 points to the upside. It needs to clear the 50-EMA at this point.
The Nasdaq has definitively broken out of this pattern (and above it's 50-EMA) and give us a target of the 2530 area.
Why the Dollar Rally?
The U.S. Dollar Index has taken off and I'm left wondering; why? I understand gold and oil sold off, the broad indexes are undergoing a bear market rally, and the Fed kept rates steady and expressed concerns over keeping inflation in check. So, how do you connect the dots (if they can be connected) and what else am I missing?
The articles I have found so far give the following correlations:
-The European Central Bank announced expectations of slowed Euro growth. OK, that might explain the Euro/U.S$ correlation, but there are multiple currencies within the U.S.$-index.
-A short squeeze? "The euro crashed through "big support levels in a short period of time," said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB. "A lot of participants were caught out and forced to liquidate" long euro positions." Perhaps the Euro-zone is slowing down and starting to mirror the situation the U.S. economy has been in for the past 9 months (a.k.a. recession whispers)?
-"...better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data Thursday and, in particular, the Chinese government's recent imposition of new currency controls were likely among the catalysts for the dollar's broad surge in Asian trading."
"Currency strategists at Commerzbank also downplayed the ECB's role, saying the moves during Asian hours were clearly a reflection of broad "dollar strength," rather than euro weakness...Obviously many market participants are currently re-positioning their currency allocations and [betting] on an end of the prolonged sideways movement."
-"The Chinese measures may be among the triggers they said, leaving investors who had bet on high-yielding currencies or continued gains by China's yuan currency with few alternatives other than the dollar. That backdrop also underpins the Japanese yen, they said, as traders abandon carry trades in which they borrow low-yielding currencies then use the funds to buy assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies."
- Commodity positions are unwinding. "...investors are long commodities, the currencies of countries that benefit from increases in commodity prices, their stocks and their bonds. In addition, many investors are invested in countries benefiting cross-border capital flows tied to increases in commodity prices (Eastern Europe, for example, which, according to the BIS, has been a major recipient of money from the Middle East). The U.S. dollar is a major safe-haven amid this major unwind." This I can see having a pretty broad ripple effect.
-As part of the above explanation, the Australian dollar continues to slide. The longest consecutive decline since 1980. Another commodity correlation.
-Some more articles can be found here. I think my understanding is clearer, but still a little fuzzy.
The articles I have found so far give the following correlations:
-The European Central Bank announced expectations of slowed Euro growth. OK, that might explain the Euro/U.S$ correlation, but there are multiple currencies within the U.S.$-index.
-A short squeeze? "The euro crashed through "big support levels in a short period of time," said Kenneth Broux, an economist at Lloyds TSB. "A lot of participants were caught out and forced to liquidate" long euro positions." Perhaps the Euro-zone is slowing down and starting to mirror the situation the U.S. economy has been in for the past 9 months (a.k.a. recession whispers)?
-"...better-than-expected U.S. pending home sales data Thursday and, in particular, the Chinese government's recent imposition of new currency controls were likely among the catalysts for the dollar's broad surge in Asian trading."
"Currency strategists at Commerzbank also downplayed the ECB's role, saying the moves during Asian hours were clearly a reflection of broad "dollar strength," rather than euro weakness...Obviously many market participants are currently re-positioning their currency allocations and [betting] on an end of the prolonged sideways movement."
-"The Chinese measures may be among the triggers they said, leaving investors who had bet on high-yielding currencies or continued gains by China's yuan currency with few alternatives other than the dollar. That backdrop also underpins the Japanese yen, they said, as traders abandon carry trades in which they borrow low-yielding currencies then use the funds to buy assets denominated in higher-yielding currencies."
- Commodity positions are unwinding. "...investors are long commodities, the currencies of countries that benefit from increases in commodity prices, their stocks and their bonds. In addition, many investors are invested in countries benefiting cross-border capital flows tied to increases in commodity prices (Eastern Europe, for example, which, according to the BIS, has been a major recipient of money from the Middle East). The U.S. dollar is a major safe-haven amid this major unwind." This I can see having a pretty broad ripple effect.
-As part of the above explanation, the Australian dollar continues to slide. The longest consecutive decline since 1980. Another commodity correlation.
-Some more articles can be found here. I think my understanding is clearer, but still a little fuzzy.
Thursday, August 07, 2008
Wednesday, August 06, 2008
QLD & FCX
Healthcare
IHF; iShares Healthcare ETF is perking up (perhaps a strategic play in case the Democrats win the White House??). This ETF has top holdings such as AET, HUM, WLP, and CI, that have seen recovery moves of late. 
Monday, August 04, 2008
Rotation
The charts pretty much speak for themselves. Using these ETFs as a general representation of sector performance, many of the big names that have been in play for the past few months are breaking down below their 200 EMAs.
There's MOO, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (main holdings include BG, MOS, MON, POT). Or, you can check out DBA.
KOL, Market Vectors Coal ETF (top holdings include WLT, CNX, MEE, ACI).
SLX, Market Vectors Steel ETF (top holdings include X, MTL, RIO, MT)
IYT, iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average is in limbo at the moment, but might be good if Oil continues to the downside (top holdings of BNI, CSX, FDX, NSC, JBLU, CAL)
And then there's PBE, PowerShares Biotech ETF (top holdings being ABI, DNA, GILD, WAT)
There's MOO, Market Vectors Agribusiness ETF (main holdings include BG, MOS, MON, POT). Or, you can check out DBA.
KOL, Market Vectors Coal ETF (top holdings include WLT, CNX, MEE, ACI).
SLX, Market Vectors Steel ETF (top holdings include X, MTL, RIO, MT)
IYT, iShares Dow Jones Transportation Average is in limbo at the moment, but might be good if Oil continues to the downside (top holdings of BNI, CSX, FDX, NSC, JBLU, CAL)
And then there's PBE, PowerShares Biotech ETF (top holdings being ABI, DNA, GILD, WAT)
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