A spotty internet connection kept me nice and irate today. What can I say. Apple finally had a strong day, whoopee. Oil is getting cozy above the $100barrel level and likewise for gold above the $900/oz. level. The energy sector is just on fire; at least 38 names I find that are in the 90th percentile of their 52-week price range:
APA
BTE
CLR
DVN
ECA
EOG
FLI
HP
NFX
OXY
PQ
SWN
WLL
WTI
XEC
XTO
CHK
WFT
PBR
SGY
COG
CMZ
NBL
CXG
RRC
DNR
PXP
HOS
SFY
RIG
FST
EAC
SSL
ARD
MMR
BDE
KWK
Thursday, February 28, 2008
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
gold & pbr
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
sbux
Starbucks broke out of it's triangle formation these last two days (though volume was less than impressive and would give me reason to trail any longs with a tight stop). Perhaps investors were reacting to news that there will be a three-hour long pep-talk that's going to close all store locations nation-wide.
broad perspective
I was checking out the Nasdaq from a longer perspective. Starting with the monthly chart we saw a divergence in the upward trending price and the dive-bombing stochastic showing the selling pressure that piled into that index starting in November of last year.
Also of note was the Oversold conditions that lasted for nearly two years between '00 and '02.
Taking a closer look, we go to the weekly chart. We were trending along nicely this past decade, right up until the beginning of '08.
And finally we zoom in a little closer to the Nasdaq weekly chart, where a tight bearish pennant has developed. Not a pretty picture when all is said and done. 
Also of note was the Oversold conditions that lasted for nearly two years between '00 and '02.
Taking a closer look, we go to the weekly chart. We were trending along nicely this past decade, right up until the beginning of '08.
And finally we zoom in a little closer to the Nasdaq weekly chart, where a tight bearish pennant has developed. Not a pretty picture when all is said and done. 
some more perspective
Now take a look at the S&P500 monthly chart. Talk about text book double top!
The weekly chart shows another double top on a more relative near term. Notice the 23-week and 52-week moving averages crossing over, yikes!
Now look at the DJIA monthly chart that doesn't look nearly as frightening.
On the weekly chart; Again we have the critical moving average crossovers and the pesky bearish pennant formation. 
The weekly chart shows another double top on a more relative near term. Notice the 23-week and 52-week moving averages crossing over, yikes!
Now look at the DJIA monthly chart that doesn't look nearly as frightening.
On the weekly chart; Again we have the critical moving average crossovers and the pesky bearish pennant formation. 
sayonara
As linked to on the Kirk Report; an article about the resignation of David Walker, comptroller general of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) for the past 10 years.
David Walker "has since 1998 been the objectively informed and outspoken critic of America's balance sheet. He has criticized supporting Iraq's dysfunctional government, pork barrel spending by Congress, unrealistic "universal health care plans" we can ill-afford or support, the escalating risks of huge deficits, fiscal vulnerability to hostile foreign governments, and a lack of will to reform our government."
David Walker "has since 1998 been the objectively informed and outspoken critic of America's balance sheet. He has criticized supporting Iraq's dysfunctional government, pork barrel spending by Congress, unrealistic "universal health care plans" we can ill-afford or support, the escalating risks of huge deficits, fiscal vulnerability to hostile foreign governments, and a lack of will to reform our government."
interesting
As found on WallStreetFighter I found this table intriguing/frightening. From the CIA website, the countries with the top 5 current account balances are:
and the bottom 5 (I'm sure you saw this coming):
and the bottom 5 (I'm sure you saw this coming):
Monday, February 25, 2008
more big moves
Tech Fall-Out
Sunday, February 24, 2008
More Craziness
To follow up the blog entry below, and just to emphasize how far technology has come: Over at Uglychart.com he's posted some more info. about the Singularity that's as intriguing as always. Of particular fascination is the advance of technology within the past 100 years. Check out the diagram here. In about 90 years we've gone from the invention of the telephone (complete with women working switchboards to channel calls) to cellphones (complete with people doing everyday tasks while conversing with people on the other end of a little bud sticking out from their ear). fyi; computer power doubles about every 18 months. The Singularity is, indeed, Near. And try to sit through the videos on Ugly's post.
God Particle
They're almost finished. I blogged about this last year, and have been anticipating the completion of this project for the past 4 years already. "Starting sometime in the coming months, two beams of particles will race in opposite directions around the tunnel, which forms an underground ring 17 miles in circumference. The particles will be guided by more than a thousand cylindrical, supercooled magnets, linked like sausages. At four locations the beams will converge, sending the particles crashing into each other at nearly the speed of light. If all goes right, matter will be transformed by the violent collisions into wads of energy, which will in turn condense back into various intriguing types of particles, some of them never seen before. That's the essence of experimental particle physics: You smash stuff together and see what other stuff comes out." Smashy, smashy.
Friday, February 22, 2008
Two Set-ups
Though I didn't trade these two set-ups today they at least provide good examples for future reference. The first is WLT (my pick for Ragin's FinalFour Contest). This was a two-fer; two good, completely opposite, set-ups. The early decline led to a correction that peetered out on lagging volume creating a bear flag. Then, later in the day, a strong advance led to a correction that drew out a bullish flag, bringing on more upside on strong volume.
POT provided the second set-up early in the day, which was also a bear flag pattern.
POT provided the second set-up early in the day, which was also a bear flag pattern.
Late Day Rally
The last half-hour in today's market saw a recovery of the Nasdaq to bring it from the lows of the day to just shy from closing the opening gap. So, where does that leave us in the broad picture? As far as Japanese Candlestick methodology teaches us, today's candle has a number of meanings. First of all, it can be perceived as a Hammer. A hammer candlestick has three criteria: (1) The real body is at the upper end of its trading range (the color of the real body is not important). (2) It has a long lower shadow that should be at least twice the height of the real body. (3) It should have no, or a very short, upper shadow. Also of importance for Hammer candlesticks is that it come after a decline (even if the decline is short-term).
Today's candlestick can also be considered a bullish Harami Pattern. A harami is a small real body (either red or green) contained within "an unusually long" green or red real body candle. From Steve Nisson's Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: "For harami all that is required is that the second real body be within the first real body, even if the shadow of the second day is above or below the prior day's high and low."
So, perhaps we have some reason to be slightly bullish-leaning? Who am I kidding? The market did one of two things today; sold off or chopped around narrow ranges. It's obvious the last half-hour brought in the short-sellers covering their positions. Today's hammer pattern was a weak one (nearly a doji, which would tell us there's plenty of indecision in the market and a trend reversal is suspect).
Today's candlestick can also be considered a bullish Harami Pattern. A harami is a small real body (either red or green) contained within "an unusually long" green or red real body candle. From Steve Nisson's Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques: "For harami all that is required is that the second real body be within the first real body, even if the shadow of the second day is above or below the prior day's high and low."
So, perhaps we have some reason to be slightly bullish-leaning? Who am I kidding? The market did one of two things today; sold off or chopped around narrow ranges. It's obvious the last half-hour brought in the short-sellers covering their positions. Today's hammer pattern was a weak one (nearly a doji, which would tell us there's plenty of indecision in the market and a trend reversal is suspect).
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Commodities Momentum
Crude lost $1.47 to settle at $98.23/barrel. While gold was up $11.40 closing at $949.20/oz.
Bearish Triangle
A decisive moment for the Nasdaq tomorrow (unless we get more indecision and a narrow range inside day tomorrow, in which case Monday should prove decisive). There's a really tight triangular bearish pennant set-up taking place that all eyes are on. Being that this is a Bear market (and that we broke through, though didn't close under, 2300 support level) we should expect a strong downside move. Strong upside momentum isn't entirely out of the question though, just less of a probability. 
DVN again
A lot of choppy activity in stocks today. A lot of indecision across the board. DVN provided a nice set-up on the short side today (actually the long side as well). The tweezer bottom reversal, combined with increasing upside momentum, gave good reason to take a long position. Had I more confidence perhaps I would have gone long there. As volume dried up on the upside three doji-like candles formed on the 5-min. and on the 15-min. time-frame an Evening Star top reversal pattern took shape. This pattern then led to a three black crows pattern. How many more candlestick patterns do you need to talk you into taking a position? The more the better for me.
Wednesday, February 20, 2008
Two Trades
I had DVN on my watch-list being that it's doing the all-time high thing. So, here's the trade.
This next trade, FSLR, had a sizable falling window open that turned out looking primed for a gap-fill when it stopped chopping around. I almost got stopped out on the test of support (something like $0.03 away) and after the big move following that test I bumped the stop up for a free trade. In hindsight I should have added to my position after it came back into the 20MA (HolyGrail set-up) at around 2:30p.m. The daily chart for FSLR looks to be setting up a bullish flag formation so keep an eye on it. 
This next trade, FSLR, had a sizable falling window open that turned out looking primed for a gap-fill when it stopped chopping around. I almost got stopped out on the test of support (something like $0.03 away) and after the big move following that test I bumped the stop up for a free trade. In hindsight I should have added to my position after it came back into the 20MA (HolyGrail set-up) at around 2:30p.m. The daily chart for FSLR looks to be setting up a bullish flag formation so keep an eye on it. 
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Bear day
Sizable open for the markets after the extended weekend only to sell-off later in the day. The way things are setting up seems like more downside to come (looks a bit bear-flag-ish). 18 of the last 22 days have closed below the 1363.98 level on the S&P500 index, which is the low from March 14, 2007. Meanwhile, commodities are getting comfortable in their upper range of their 52-week price channels. From Wheat to Soybeans, Silver to Oil, the bull market in commodities runs on. Gold was up over $20/oz. today to settle at $929.80/oz. and Oil finally closed above (barely) $100/barrel.
Meanwhile, some stocks that aren't feeling the bear market pain include: DVN, PBR, CHK, COG, HP, KWK, XEC, RRC, MTL, MOS
Meanwhile, some stocks that aren't feeling the bear market pain include: DVN, PBR, CHK, COG, HP, KWK, XEC, RRC, MTL, MOS
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Apocalypse (NOW!)...
In case you would like some perspective (political discretions aside) on what sort of things are happening on the other side of the world. Things, for some reason, we don't hear much about on our local nightly news. You have to look into the middle of the article and look through the pictures in the slide-show. Fascinating really. War never ends, does it?
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Pattern Recognition
Recognizing candlestick patterns that prices carve out can help immensely with one's trading. The following is one which is comprised of 5 candles and is known as the Rising Three Method (the reverse of which is known as the Falling Three Method). Of course candlestick patterns can be very subjective and not always perfect in their formation. This rising three formation appeared in ACI this morning. It wasn't ideal in the sense that the 4th candle's shadow extended beyond the range of the 1st candles. Also, the close of the 5th candle wasn't above the first candles high range.
ORB
A lot of Opening Range Breakout (ORB) opportunities this morning. Of particular note was FSLR that gained a whopping $52+ today on a positive Q4 earnings report.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Monday, February 11, 2008
gold
What do you think we'll see first, $800/oz. or $1000/oz. for the price of gold? Personally I believe the latter. Here's an article telling of the dramatic reaction the market had when it tested the $890 range last week.
"...gold counter-attacked..."In the three trading days since Feb. 5, it reversed and stormed upward by $U.S. 32.50, closing (spot future basis) on Friday, Feb.8 $918.40 ... the gold price fell below both 10 and 20-day moving averages this week only to turn right around and move above them again by the end of the week. The shorter term moving average remains above its longer term counterpart."
"...gold counter-attacked..."In the three trading days since Feb. 5, it reversed and stormed upward by $U.S. 32.50, closing (spot future basis) on Friday, Feb.8 $918.40 ... the gold price fell below both 10 and 20-day moving averages this week only to turn right around and move above them again by the end of the week. The shorter term moving average remains above its longer term counterpart."
Why? Close observers of gold futures' noted that "open interest"...rose as gold was going down and fell (sharply) as it recovered. This suggests short sellers being routed."
What's Goin' On Here?
Converted Organics (COIN) has seen a lot of activity since the beginning of the year. Up over 57% in the last 6 weeks and institutional ownership was big the first week of January with over 272,000 shares. Though price has flattened out it's worth keeping on my radar for increasing volume.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Like Surround Sound?
Than here's a set-up for you to drool over. A little on the excessive side, but who am I to judge with my little 32" TV and no cable service.
Saturday, February 09, 2008
Stock Watch
Here are some stocks of interest to me for next week.
LSTR showing a flag pattern with its fast EMAs recovering above the 200day average. The downside seems to have support around the 20-day EMA or the $45.50 area while overhead resistance gives price some room to run up. It's out of extreme overbought conditions and Friday's trading left it as an inside candle from the previous day.
CELG; had a nice steady uptrend since the previous sell-off and is now facing resistance at the 200EMA. The stochastic is ticking up into overbought conditions again and there's slight divergence between price, MACD and stochastics. If nothing else this stock could provide channel scalping plays.
UAUA; the long-term horizon on this chart shows the majority of price below the $41 pivot area. Last week the stock attempted a broad move up and was turned back hard from that pivot resistance. It has since slowly retraced. The only technical problems being slight overbought conditions and the fast moving averages being below the 200-day. If it breaks that $41 pivot it could get a pop, otherwise it could get sold back into the $37's.
WYNN; has had a steady retracement from the previous sell-off where it's now at the 38.2% recovery level. Price is showing weakness with an extreme overbought level and a bearish harami doji formation. Resistance is at the $123 level.
LSTR showing a flag pattern with its fast EMAs recovering above the 200day average. The downside seems to have support around the 20-day EMA or the $45.50 area while overhead resistance gives price some room to run up. It's out of extreme overbought conditions and Friday's trading left it as an inside candle from the previous day.
CELG; had a nice steady uptrend since the previous sell-off and is now facing resistance at the 200EMA. The stochastic is ticking up into overbought conditions again and there's slight divergence between price, MACD and stochastics. If nothing else this stock could provide channel scalping plays.
UAUA; the long-term horizon on this chart shows the majority of price below the $41 pivot area. Last week the stock attempted a broad move up and was turned back hard from that pivot resistance. It has since slowly retraced. The only technical problems being slight overbought conditions and the fast moving averages being below the 200-day. If it breaks that $41 pivot it could get a pop, otherwise it could get sold back into the $37's.
WYNN; has had a steady retracement from the previous sell-off where it's now at the 38.2% recovery level. Price is showing weakness with an extreme overbought level and a bearish harami doji formation. Resistance is at the $123 level.
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